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From an American perspective, the EU is often seen as both a problem and an opportunity. An incoming Trump administration will no doubt view cooperation between the EU and NATO positively only if it benefits American security. If burden sharing is ineffective, the US may form informal coalitions outside institutional frameworks. The Heritage Foundation and other think tanks are developing plans to prioritize American interests and leverage bilateral relationships with European states. The US remains, however, dependent on international cooperation, including trade with Europe and China. The US has a predominant role in European security, but disengaging would diminish its leverage. The importance of US-European non-military security cooperation was highlighted after 9/11. In contrast the US has historically viewed the importance of a military security role for the EU as low, preferring to lead in NATO or informal coalitions. The US thus long discouraged the development of an EU security and defense policy. However, over time, the US has realized the need for Europe and has supported European capabilities at least in areas not vital to American interests.

An astonishing volte-face in Turkish politics, and a cold shower for president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the astonishing winner in last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections. Never a dull moment in Turkish politics, so say seasoned analysts of big, mighty and unruly Turkey. Are we now, after the recent municipal elections, observing the beginning of the end of the decades of Erdogan rule in Turkey? While the land-slide victory for the main opposition party CHP – for decades the biggest opposition party but somehow always restrained by a notorious 25%-ish level in the chain of elections – is highly indicative of how the current political winds in Turkish politics are now blowing, a reminder needs to be made that as regards national (and international) politics the prevailing power conditions were set and defined by last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, and the astonishing results of these.