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Donald Trump has announced his third presidential bid

Nov 16, 2022

Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president in 2024 on the 15th of November. The primary election will be held in just over a year, and by announcing his candidacy this soon, Trump hopes to increase pressure on other potential nominees, which may push them into hesitation on whether to challenge him or not.

Other potential candidates include former Vice President Mike Pence, who has distanced himself from Trump since the Capitol attack last year. Ted Cruz, a Senator from Texas, ho had to endure Trump’s rough insults to his family during the last primary election, is another potential candidate. But the one Trump probably worries the most about is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who in the recent 2022 midterm election won by margins not seen in decades. DeSantis will be out of office in 2026, so timewise he either makes a bid for the presidency in the 2024 election or has to wait until after his gubernatorial term.

Trump stated that the task to lead the country is not for a “conventional leader” but for a movement of millions of people. However, Trump may find it more difficult this time, compared to his first run. The first time Trump ran for office he was a blank slate in terms of politics, but this time around he comes with a political record of varied results. What the Democrats think about Trump is no secret, whereas the Republicans have been a mixed bag, but with a majority that followed suit.

However, the 2022 midterm elections did not turn out to be success story for Trump, which probably have left Republicans wondering if Trump is a candidate they really want as their nominee for presidency. The debate on this will now gain momentum and hence only add to the internal divides within the party. Concerning political disappointments, Trump did not manage to repeal Democratic healthcare reforms, nor did he deliver regarding his promises of investments in infrastructure. He may also be criticized for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, as he appointed Dr. Anthony Fauci – who has endured more criticism from Republicans than Democrats.

The attack on the Capitol will also be looming over Trump as he will continue to be under great scrutiny for his alleged role in the event. Many candidates, backed by Trump, who casted doubt regarding the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election did not fare well in the recent midterm elections, suggesting that the storming of the Capitol influenced voter behaviour in a way that does not favour Trump.

Trump is involved in several substantial legal procedures. Most notably, this includes the federal probes regarding his role in the Capitol attack and handling of classified material, but also a criminal election-tampering inquiry in Georgia and a defamation lawsuit concerning sexual assault allegations. It is not entirely unlikely that one of these investigations could lead to a trial and hence damage his campaign.  It should also be noted that Trump is the only person in American history who has announced his candidacy while being involved in several legal procedures at the same time.

If Trump was to be elected president once again, it will affect geopolitics, not least the emerging multipolarity.  The U.S. would likely become more protectionist, more polarised, and more isolated on the international arena, hence its willingness to work within the multilateral system would most likely be undermined. In other words, this would mean an assertive “America First”-policy.

Despite this, Trump should not be underestimated as he has probably survived more heat than any other political figure in recent times. Trump will also seek to strengthen the narrative about the corrupt establishment, with the risk of generating more discontent towards the overall political system and its legitimacy. Trump has challenged the political norm of respecting one’s opponents, as he has made name-calling a habit for himself and others. And so once again, slander will be something Americans will have to endure in a presidential election.